You know Turkey’s hopes to join the European Union (EU) are in trouble when the state minister whose job is to get the country into the European club begins to have second thoughts about his mission. You may also know that Turkey’s influence in the Middle East would diminish if Ankara does not move forward with its EU bid.

The story goes like this: On Saturday, Sept. 21, Egemen Bagis, the Turkish minister for EU affairs and the chief negotiator with Brussels, declared that his country will probably not become a member of the prestigious European club. “I think Turkey will end up like Norway,” the minister said, referring to the Nordic country’s close commercial ties with, and lack of membership in, the EU.

The reason why Bagis assumed a pessimistic tone was his justified belief in European prejudices against Turkey. He points at Ankara’s quest to join “Club Europa” has gone on forever (it is now a 50-year-old enterprise) and European countries’ recent vote against Istanbul in its bid to host the 2020 Olympics.

What is remarkable here is that this is the first time that a high-ranking member of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government is admitting how Turkey may never enter the EU. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan jokingly said that if EU states would not let Turkey in, Ankara would consider joining the Russian and Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization.