How many Jews must live in Israel in order to put the demographic genie back in the bottle? On the eve of Rosh Hashana [Jewish New Year] 5774, more than 8 million people live in Israel, more than 6 million of them Jews. According to data published by the Israeli Central Bureau for Statistics, more than 75% of Israel’s citizens are Jews. A solid majority, a secure one, but not necessarily one that is sure of itself.

The demographic threat, real or imagined, continues to preoccupy this majority. The Jewish state is surrounded by people who are not Jewish and not friendly. The reserve of Jews in the world is not growing, and for most of them the likelihood of emigration is low. The Jews of Israel must rely on their own reproductive abilities if they wish to maintain the Jewish character of their state. And there is no doubt that this is what they want: A survey of the “Sampling Project” from 2011 showed that more than 70% of the Israeli public wants Israel to be “Jewish and democratic,” and that 14% would be satisfied if it were just Jewish. Another 14%, the vast majority of them Arabs, would want Israel just to be democratic.  

So, how many Jews must there be in the world for the Jewish people to feel secure? At the end of World War II, after the Holocaust, there were 11 million Jews in the world, and today there are 13 million. In 2050, if we can rely on the demographic forecast of Sergio Della Pergola, the number of Jews will fall just short of 15 million. It’s a small number in absolute terms, and even smaller when compared with the rate of growth of the world’s population.

In 1945, there were 4.7 Jews for every 1,000 people in the world. Sixty years later that number diminished to 2.1 Jews for every 1,000 people. Indeed, a small people, surrounded by other peoples. This people’s demographic anxieties are understandable in light of the murderous history that cut down its numbers, and in light of the numbers in themselves, regardless of what the rest of the world is doing. These are fears that were supposed to be healed by Zionist Israel, a task at which it is failing, for now. It seems likely it will continue to fail in the next year as well.