Dark clouds are gathering in Turkey over the Kurdish peace process, which is key to the future of the country’s fragile politics. Although talks between the two sides may be ongoing, and at a snail’s pace, mounting regional tensions, the “state of war” looming over Turkey and the disheartening state of the parliamentary effort to draft a new constitution are all deepening misgivings. Will looming fears be realized?

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) have greatly increased their pressure on the government over the past several weeks. The first of the three stages of the peace process entailed the PKK militants’ withdrawal from Turkish territory, and this has put the PKK-BDP alliance and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) at loggerheads. While the former asserts that the withdrawal is almost complete, Ankara maintains that “only 20%” of the militants have pulled out. The standoff is a clear indication that after months of talks, the two sides still lack mutual trust, which is a prerequisite for success.

The immediate issue is PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s ultimatum to the government to “announce the reform plan, required for the second stage, by Sept. 1 and start implementing it by Oct. 15” as well as his appeal for the formation of parliamentary commissions to “contribute to the process.” The clock is ticking, but the government appears to be doing nothing.

Meanwhile, the PKK’s military wing is toughening its rhetoric. Cemil Bayik, a top PKK figure based in Iraqi Kurdistan, has warned, “The process is about to collapse.” In an interview with the BBC’s Turkish service, Bayik said, “We’ve amply fulfilled what was up to us. [But] the process cannot go on like this. The state has brought the process to the brink of a deadlock. We’ve warned them not to waste the process. The second stage should be completed by October.”