If, because of Egypt’s geopolitical weight in the region, the Egyptian crisis pushed the Syrian conflict to the backseat of regional crises, the chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus has brought it back to the fore. The exchange of accusations between the Syrian authorities and the opposition on the responsibility for this criminal act — at a time when the UN chemical-weapons inspection mission was in Damascus — the call for a UN investigation into this despicable crime and the UN seizing of the issue together make this a game changer in the ongoing Syrian conflict.
The debate on the need for external intervention of any scope or magnitude has been reinvigorated. This last could break down the political stalemate backed by a military no-win situation on the ground despite an ever-changing balance of power that increasingly favors the regime.
The Syrian regime is relying on the time factor to weaken and destroy the military opposition. Nevertheless, the political scenery post-chemical attack cannot be the same as before, regardless of the outcome of the investigation.
There is another game changer in Syria. Fighting has broken out between the Kurds and the radical Islamists as the Kurdish question in Syria emerges as a major issue, supported by Kurds all around the region. The question of Western Kurdistan and the internal-external linkage it is creating in terms of reconfiguration of power will definitely affect the evolution of the Syrian war, and even more importantly, the future organization of the Syrian state. Though it is still early to say how the Syrian situation will unfold, one can confidently argue that the Syrian Kurds will not accept anything less than what their brethren have in Iraq: an autonomous province with implications for the reorganization of the Syrian state.
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