The current political and psychological environment in Iraq seems favorable for the return of al-Qaeda, as was demonstrated in Abu Ghraib jailbreak on July 22 and the weighty operations that followed. The latter targeted Shiite civilians by means of car bombs, al-Qaeda’s preferred tactic. These days, al-Qaeda is charting a new course of action that adapts to internal and regional changes. Its new name — the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) — clearly expresses the organization’s ideological inclinations and political aspirations.

During the past period of conflict with US forces, al-Qaeda faced significant challenges in establishing itself in Iraq. It was forced to enter into theoretical, doctrinal and political discussions similar to those held between the former leader of the organization, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and his former mentor Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi and the current international leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahri. Zawahri and Maqdisi both objected to al-Qaeda’s excessive attacks on civilians and its focus on targeting Shiites.

The most prominent objections, however, came from the Iraqi Sunni community itself. While some Sunni organizations — such as the Islamic Army in Iraq, the 20th Revolution Brigades and the Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance — adopted the concept of resisting the occupation, they objected to sectarian targeting and the killing of civilians. Additionally, many members of these Sunni organizations have joined various formations of the Sahwa Forces, which fought al-Qaeda.This was part of a broader operation to cause the Iraqi Sunni community to drift away from the transnational goals of the jihadist-Salafist ideology of al-Qaeda. Furthermore, some groups that espouse Salafist ideology have denounced the practices and stance of al-Qaeda and went to great lengths to support the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Among these groups was the Fatwa Committee, headed by Sheikh Mahdi al-Samidi.

Today, al-Qaeda’s return should be understood in the context of both regional and internal changes. The Syrian conflict has created an environment suitable for the activities of radical groups fighting against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. ISIS took advantage of these circumstances to take part in the conflict and invested in the sectarian instigation that ensued in the region. Contrary to previous announcements by al-Qaeda and its factions, it seems that the organization no longer views its conflict with the Shiites as secondary, but rather as a central part of its ideology. This was evident in the al-Qaeda statement in which it announced its responsibility for the targeting of Shiite civilians during Eid al-Fitr in Baghdad and other cities. The organization considered the attacks retaliation against the “arrests Sunnis are subject to,” and a message conveyed to the Shiites that “they will pay a high price for all they did.”