Turkey’s ongoing domestic unrest creates additional obstacles to the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) plans to export oil through an independent pipeline.

By further checking Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ability to resolve issues essential to Turkey’s national security, namely the PKK “peace process” and the Syrian civil war, the unrest limits Ankara’s maneuverability in Iraqi Kurdistan. International criticism of Erdogan’s authoritarian behavior also weakens his ability or interest in challenging allies — namely the United States — over direct Kurdish crude exports that undermine Iraqi sovereignty. These trends will not diminish Turkish-Erbil energy ties; however, they will further delay the Kurdistan Region’s energy production, reduce projected export levels, and decrease international oil company (IOC) payments, while expanding cross-border trucking operations and its lucrative benefits for KRG officials. 

In many ways, Turkey is pursuing business as usual in the Kurdistan Region, despite its domestic political upheaval. A “new” KRG energy acreage map reveals Turkey’s expansive and provocative energy investments; two of the five acquired “Turkish entity” blocks are located clearly inside Iraq’s disputed territories, which reflect the KRG’s own territorial expansionist agenda.

Turkish companies also are negotiating energy exchanges with the KRG and Sunni Arab leaders in disputed areas, including Ninevah, where the KRG has signed contracts with IOCs. These deals are likely to continue, particularly since the Kurds gained about 28% of the seats on the Ninevah provincial council, although failing to secure a majority over Arab Iraqi parties combined.