Turkey’s Middle East policy under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has effectively ended in a dead end. First, there were Ankara’s miscalculations over Syria, and now there is its regional isolation over Egypt. There is an almost celebratory mood in some quarters in the region over this, which belies the assumption in AKP circles that Turkey under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the darling of all Arabs.
It may appear to have been so momentarily after Erdogan chastised Israeli President Simon Peres at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2009 over Israel’s brutal operation against Gaza. Arab sympathy for Turkey also peaked after the killing by Israeli commandos of nine pro-Palestinian Turkish activists on the Mavi Marmara aid ship in May 2012.
But once Ankara focused on issues Arabs are touchy about, following the Arab Spring — while appearing to underestimate the importance of Arab nationalism and sectarian affinities in the region — the tide turned, and accusations of a meddling and patronizing Turkey with a neo-Ottoman agenda were not long in coming. The message was clear. “We like you when you beat on Israel, but keep your nose out off the Arab world which you are not a part of.”
The assumption, therefore, by Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu — which was predicated on the notion that Islamic solidarity would rally the region around Turkey — proved to be wrong. From Tehran to Baghdad, from Damascus to Lebanon, Turkey is viewed today at best as a rival and at worst as an enemy by the regions' Shiites, due to its position on the Syrian crisis.
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