It may be important to follow up on the ongoing governmental and parliamentary crises in Beirut. However, it is certainly more important to shed light on the root causes of these crises and their main indications in Lebanon and around the region.

In the latest development regarding the government crisis, Beirut MP (and Prime Minister-designate) Tammam Salam, who is in charge of forming the new government, agreed with the Hariri alliance to which he belongs, and with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and President Michel Suleiman, to form a government consisting of 24 ministers. The ministers are to be distributed equally: eight for the Suleiman-Salam-Jumblatt triangle, eight for the Hariri alliance and eight for Gen. Michel Aoun’s alliance with Shiite forces. The latter rejected this offer, however, for several reasons:

First, the Aoun-Shiite alliance feels that Salam and Jumblatt have become part of the Hariri team, and thus the attempt to include them in the distribution of ministerial quotas is an open maneuver to gain the largest number of seats in favor of the Hariri alliance.

Second, a coalition government is supposed to mirror the parliamentary balances. In the current parliament, the Hariri-Jumblatt alliance has 67 out of 128 deputy seats, compared with 59 seats for the Aoun-Shiite forces alliance. Two deputies are outside these alliances, while the president has no share in parliament. Thus, the Aoun-Shiite forces alliance sees that the representative proportions in parliament require a coalition government distributed as follows: 10 ministers for the majority Hariri-Jumblatt alliance, nine ministers for the Aoun-Shiite forces alliance, and five ministers to please the president and Prime Minister-designate Salam. Neither party accepted the other’s offer. As a result, the government formation process reached a dead end.