Iranian Presidential ElectionIn a State of Confusion
Two months before Iranian presidential elections, the political factions are still in disarray in their search to put forward a winning candidate, writes Shahir ShahidSaless.
Two months before Iran’s scheduled June 14 presidential elections, the country is quiet, unlike four years ago, with no sign of public enthusiasm or anticipation. Instead, confusion best characterizes the environment. It reigns among politicians as well as the people, in all walks of life, despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s constant emphasis on the necessity of having a “vibrant election” to confront foreign threats and sanctions. On March 2, he asserted, “Vibrant elections will give the enemy a punch on the mouth.”
For previous elections, the Interior Ministry had been tasked with planning and supervision. In January 2013, however, a new law was enacted that made elections the purview of the Central Executive Election Board, comprised of 11 members, including representatives from the three branches of government and a number of national political, social and cultural figures. Some observers in Iran believe this change was a preemptive measure aimed at preventing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from using the Interior Ministry to manipulate the presidential election in favor of his camp’s candidate.
That said, the interior minister, whose duties also include appointing provincial and city governors, will nonetheless lead the new election board. Meanwhile, the governors are tasked with organizing and reporting election results for their jurisdictions. Therefore, in practice, the Interior Ministry still has the potential to exert its influence over the outcome of the elections. According to the popular Iranian website Baztab, Ahmadinejad’s relentless efforts to replace Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, who is siding with the supreme leader, have so far been blocked by Ayatollah Khamenei.
Ahmadinejad’s favored candidate is Esfandiyar Rahim Mashaei, his long-time top aide and confidant. In the waning months of his presidency, Ahmadinejad’s highest priority has revolved around creating an appealing popular image for Mashaei as well as forcing the Council of Guardians, which vets candidate, into a position of having to qualify him to run for the presidency. This is a difficult undertaking. Many analysts believe that Ahmadinejad seeks to implement a scheme similar to one used by Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev in Russia to return to power in four years.
