Israel's former foreign minister Avigdor Liberman is on hold. The man considered until recently the most powerful figure on the Israeli political map and the biggest threat to the hegemony of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently awaiting criminal trial on charges explosive enough to put the lid on his political career. And yet, given his current situation, Liberman has never been in a better position. Considering that for the time being, he is barred from serving as a government minister (although, pending a verdict in his case, he can keep his office as Knesset member), Liberman still wields vast political power. What’s more, he has lost none of his influence on Netanyahu, or his impact on the government and the decision-making process. Be that as it may, Liberman's future is uncertain and at the mercy of the judges. His present, in contrast, is by far more relaxed and promising and puts him at an advantageous starting point in the race for leadership.
Liberman has mastered the art of power wielding. He is an expert at situation evaluations, whatever the circumstances, and a real pro in maximizing the potential of leverage. Thus, already prior to the recent parliamentary election, he realized that on the legal level, he was hanging by a thread and was smart enough to opt for an alliance with Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, Liberman handed the premiership to Netanyahu on a silver platter. Had it not been for the union between the ruling Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, Bibi (Netanyahu) would have no doubt lost the election. This is now clear to all and sundry. Just before the union between the Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu was announced, the polls anticipated only about 24 mandates for Netanyahu. Labor Party leader Shelly Yachimovich was already sure at the time of landing 21 to 22 mandates. The momentum was working against Bibi and in favor of Shelly. The Israeli voters, who yearned to see Netanyahu replaced at the helm, would have elected Yachimovich to the premiership. Yachimovich was supposed to become the new “Tzipi Livni,” only better: Unlike Livni in 2009, Shelly Yachimovich would have succeeded in setting up a government.
However, at that point, Bibi and Liberman joined forces and straight away soared in the polls to 35 Knesset seats. And that was it, the game was over. It was clear by then that no party on the political map could touch that number. Yachimovich lost popularity almost immediately, falling sharply in the polls. Once she was no longer the sole option, the Israeli electorate started looking in other directions, wandering off to rival parties, to Yair Lapid‘s Yesh Atid, where it found a warm welcome. Lapid, the all-Israeli guy, the popular, genial, articulate and intelligent contender, did not drive away traditional Likud voters the way Livni did, nor did he turn off the bourgeois and the capitalists the way Yachimovich did. And the rest is history. Netanyahu was dealt a smashing blow by the voters and lost a quarter of his political power, but nonetheless, emerged with the upper hand in the race. He owes this to Liberman.
And Liberman is adept at debt collection. He, too, lost a quarter of his political power. Following the union with the Likud, Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu dropped from 15 mandates to a mere 11. It was the first time in his political career that Liberman found himself on the decline. And he had none but Bibi to thank for that. However, since the controlling shares of the entire business were in his hands, Liberman had seen to it that the waning electoral support would not affect him or his party. The 11 Knesset members of Yisrael Beiteinu hold more jobs in the incoming government than any other party. They have five ministerial portfolios (including the Foreign Affairs portfolio, which has been set aside for Liberman), the chairmanship of parliamentary committees and deputy positions. The fact that Yisrael Beiteinu has managed to maintain its political power while the Likud faces stagnation and even regression has stirred up unrest in Benjamin Netanyahu’s court. Anyway, Liberman ignores the agitation in the ally party. He knows when to close his eyes and turn his head.
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