Sources are predicting the likely reappointment of Abdullah Ensour as Jordanian prime minister. Their assessment comes on the heels of a consultation process led by Royal Court chief Fayez Tarawneh and involving political blocs and independent members of parliament. The consultations mark the first time that the legislature has played such a role in the selection of a prime minister, representing a milestone in the development of Jordanian parliamentary government. King Abdullah II had raised such a possibility on numerous occasions since ascending the throne in 1999.
In another sense, however, Ensour's appointment does not much matter. Jordan’s challenges are long term and external, and the prime minister, regardless of who he might be, can do little to address them. Case in point, replacing Marouf al-Bakhit with Awn Khasawneh in 2011 failed to usher in change despite Khasawneh's genuine reformist instincts. As Jordan's frequent changes in government demonstrate, switching the prime minister does nothing to diminish the country’s challenges. In addition, one must acknowledge that Ensour faces a situation that is in many ways more difficult than the one Khasawneh was dealt.
The recent history of Jordan is a case study in how governments promising reform have ended in frustration and unable to deliver. Ensour’s reappointment does, however, have symbolic importance, as it is a move in the right direction and lends the impression of real change occurring. His ability to endure challenges and make unpopular decisions, and the regime’s ability to survive them, makes the regime comfortable with his reappointment. Recent events, including disruptions in the natural gas supply from Egypt and the ongoing conflict in Syria, have proved to be especially challenging and beyond the capacity of any prime minister to control, but Ensour’s ability to survive unpopular decisions makes him a known quantity.
If the Arab Spring has taught monarchs anything, it is how problematic unpredictability can be to the stability and control of a regime. The decision to reappoint Ensour is a choice of predictable consequences, because many of the decisions the next government must make are similar to those that Ensour has made and survived in the past.
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