Last Saturday night [Feb. 2], two of the three heads of the Shas party, Eli Yishai and Ariel Atias, arrived at television studios to warn that implementing Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid's plan to enlist ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military would result in civil war.

Each assessed that there was a very real possibility that Shas would not join the next government and arrogantly proclaimed that they were not afraid to join the opposition. However, their attempt to convey self-confidence in an environment fraught with uncertainty didn't hide the distress felt by Shas leadership, who since the elections have been terrified that they could be thrown into the opposition by their loyal ally, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The alliance being forged between Lapid and Naftali Bennett, leader of the HaBayit HaYehudi party — which is based on a shared goal of enacting a strict law for military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews — isn't the only front that poses a threat to Shas. The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party now finds itself facing a catch-22, even with its ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi sister, United Torah Judaism, which is categorically opposed to changing the status quo on military service.

Key figures in Shas admit that without United Torah Judaism's backing, the party will have difficulty demonstrating independence and reaching compromises on the matter of military service — even though much of the electorate that gave Shas its 11 Knesset seats in the recent election is comprised of traditional Jews who have served and currently serve in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).