A recent Gallup poll shows that 63% of Iranians think their government should continue its efforts to develop nuclear capabilities — even though more than eight out of 10 say their personal livelihoods have been hurt by the West’s sanctions. At the same time, 47% of the poll’s respondents primarily blame the United States for the penalties Iran faces. In comparison, one in 10 point the finger at their own government. The poll, which was conducted between Dec. 26 and Jan. 10, bases its results on telephone interviews with 1,000 adults throughout Iran.

Those who accept the survey’s findings see it as part of a long-standing trend of popular support for Iran’s nuclear ambitions, confirmed by a series of similar polls with comparable results over the years. Those who reject the survey’s findings tend to question the accuracy of polls carried out in places like Iran and point to the limited public debate on the nuclear program within the Islamic Republic.

Let’s assume that the Gallup poll accurately reflects popular attitudes in Iran. What kind of window does it provide into the dynamics that decision-makers in Tehran are facing?

In the West, the dominant view of the implications of the Iranian atomic program's continued popularity is that the Islamic Republic will maintain its nuclear drive. While this assumption is reasonable, its one-sided approach to the underlying dynamics of Iranian decision-making renders it inadequate. The assumption is that popular support for the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program is giving the Islamic Republic carte blanche to pursue its current path.