Al-Qaeda is one or two steps ahead of Iraqi security efforts. This is a reality to which even security personnel will admit. The fact is, Iraqi security is gradually starting to abandon its traditional approach to limit the dangers posed by the organization, its expansion and extensive planning capabilities.

But Iraq's timid confession of its inability to read al-Qaeda’s thought process and predict its next move and goals has yet to develop into a clear and studied vision that goes beyond beefing up its military presence in the streets, carrying out arbitrary arrests and relying on an unprofessional intelligence body.

The "secret formula" given by former US president George W. Bush in late 2006 to undermine al-Qaeda relied on two key elements. The first was to attract local Sunnis opposed to al-Qaeda, including militant groups that had taken up arms against the US military in the past. The second involved establishing an expansive system of information sources in areas where the organization is expected to be found.

The “Bush plan” even included striking at Shiite militias spread throughout southern Iraq at the time. This did not involve setting up counter-militias similar to the al-Sahwa organization, but rather was to be accomplished through the use of Shiite-dominated Iraqi military forces. US forces realized at the time the difficulties of striking a sectarian and ethnic balance within these groups.