The year 2012 did not go well for Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in terms of his once highly touted policy of “zero problems with neighbors.” If anything “zero problems” has turned into a catch phrase for lampooning his political ambitions.

Far from zero problems, Turkey’s relations with Iraq and Syria deteriorated further in 2012. Expectations for 2013 are not much better, given that events in those countries will most likely get worse before getting better.

Meanwhile, ties with Tehran will continue to be strained due to diverging views on the situation in Syria, as well as Ankara’s reinvigorated ties with NATO. Those ties have resulted in the deployment of anti-missile capabilities in Turkey against possible ballistic threats from the East.

Tehran understands this to mean itself, and is leveling harsh criticism at Turkey, arguing that Ankara is complicit in a US plot to protect Israel against Iran. But what is really worrying Davutoglu, judging by his various statements to reporters over the past few weeks, are developments in Iraq, rather than developments in Syria or Iran.