If the first factor threatening to ignite the military and security situation in Lebanon, against the backdrop of the Syrian civil war, is linked to the Palestinian demarcation line between the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk in Syria and the Palestinian refugee camps around the Lebanese capital, there is another factor on the verge of blowing up the military situation, foreshadowing certain dangers to Lebanon. This factor is exemplified by the violent conflict raging on the sectarian, economic and geopolitical demarcation line in the Damascus, Aleppo and Syrian coast triangle. The conflict is geographically adjacent to Lebanon, but in reality puts the country right into the heart of its explosive calculations.

More than 22 months since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria, experts have come to agree that the main geographical nerve, or the essence of the struggle for control on the ground, revolves around this triangle that connects Damascus with the capital of the Syrian north — the city of Aleppo — on the one hand, and the two cities with the Syrian coast — which is dominated by a pro-regime Alawite majority — on the other.

About two years ago, it became clear to everyone that the war between the regime and its opponents centered on the axes of this triangle. Meanwhile, the rest of Syria seemed to sit on the sidelines of the war, in a state of mere reaction, or merely attempting to prove themselves as part of the Syrian protest movement.

This is the state of the Jazeera region, the wide desert that extends up to the borders of Iraq, where there is practically no news about the daily battles; no break-ins, no occupations, no withdrawals. It is as if all of Syria, or all of its opposition, are focused on that triangle.