Sanctions on Iran have no doubt hurt the Iranian people, most of whom are unable to directly shape the Islamic Republic’s nuclear policy. But the question remains: Have the sanctions affected the Iranian regime’s nuclear decision-making? More to the point, have sanctions affected the Revolutionary Guard?

Although the benefits of the US sanctions policy are not always tangible, the answer to both questions could very well be yes. The Guard is one of the most powerful economic, political and military actors in Iran today. It is often motivated not only by its devotion to the revolution and the regime, but also by a desire to line its own pockets.

Many members have become fabulously wealthy since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president in 2005, such as the current Minister of Interior, a former Guard officer and Ahmadinejad buddy reported to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The Guard depends on state resources, especially the billions of dollars in oil and gas revenues that flow into the regime’s coffers every year. Iran’s inability to sell its oil due to sanctions will not only shrink the resources available to the Guard as a military force, but will crimp the wealth of individual Guard officers. This could erode the Guard’s loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — and perhaps even change the regime’s unyielding stance on the nuclear program.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was created to protect the Islamic Republic from internal and external challenges. Over time, it has come to dominate the regime it was meant to protect. The Guard is the biggest economic actor in Iran, with a hand in virtually every sector — not only oil production but also auto-making, telecommunications, construction and beyond. It has thrived due to an implicit deal with Khamenei: He opens the state’s resources and treasury to it, and it buttresses his often shaky authority as Iran’s Supreme Leader.