In the aftermath of next week’s Israeli elections, Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu will face the decision of his political life. What kind of governing coalition he chooses to form will affect Israel for years to come.

One option will effectively end hopes of a two-state solution to Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and deepen its isolation. The other could open the door to negotiations and better relations with Europe and the United States.  

If the real vote on Jan. 22 is anywhere close to what public opinion polls currently indicate, Israel’s domestic scene in the aftermath of the elections will reflect a grim reality: the strengthening and radicalization of the Israeli right and the fragmentation of its center and center-left. This reality is the outcome of long-term as well as recent developments.

First, Israel’s demographics have changed in the past few decades, resulting in an increase in the relative size of the constituencies from which Israel’s secular right and particularly its religious right-wing parties draw most of their support. By contrast, the relative weight of the constituencies on which Israel’s center and center-left parties are based has diminished.