A different election from before

In early April 2012, Hamas held elections for its party structure from top to bottom. The elections started in Gaza, where — unlike in the other three areas: the West Bank, the Israeli jails and abroad — Hamas can freely move and communicate. Hamas’s leadership comes from these four areas. The Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the security measures against Hamas activists in jail hampered the elections in those areas. The elections abroad were delayed because, after Hamas left Damascus, the movement’s leaders became dispersed between Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf.

Israel’s war on Gaza last November caused an additional delay. But Hamas has demonstrated that it can work in more difficult conditions and it was able to complete the elections in six months. Only the post for the head of the political bureau remains to be filled, and that is expected to happen in the next few days. The delay was not for logistical reasons, as is the case in other areas. The delay was for more important reasons. It was because of political and strategic reasons having to do with where Hamas is heading in the new Middle East after the Arab Spring and its critical junctures.

The evidence suggests that Khaled Meshaal is the one most likely to win that post, which would be for the third time. That is an exceptional departure from Hamas’s rules, which set a maximum of two consecutive terms for the job. Hamas granting that exception to Meshaal adds special significance to the post and to the one who occupies it. It also points to the nature and challenges of the next stage, which requires Hamas to behave differently than in the past. In the past period, there has been a lot of speculation that the post may go to Meshaal’s deputy in the political bureau, Moussa Abu Marzouk, or the prime minister of the Hamas government in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh. The delay in resolving that issue reflects the serious disagreements over it and the challenges that the Hamas movement faces in the next phase.