The French attack on Mali came as a surprise for many, at least in terms of its timing. According to UN Security Council resolution 2085 of December 2012, it was expected to come as part of a process of backing up African forces deployed by the Economic Community of Western African Countries (ECOWAS) to assist the Malian forces.

The radical Islamists' successful offensive into the south of the country and the danger that these elements will gain control of most of Mali — since they face a demoralized and ill-equipped army — has led to an immediate French reaction to the preemptive attack.

The Algerians, who share a 1200-mile border with Mali, had engaged in intensive diplomatic activities to dissociate the rebel factions, who have a national political or ethnic agenda, from the jihadist forces of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Algeria always took a more nuanced, comprehensive and political approach to the crisis. But events changed their agenda and timing.

The increasing power of the AQIM jihadists, the continued deterioration of the socioeconomic conditions of the country, the ongoing political crisis and the rise of Islamism all make Mali — a failed state torn by ethnic and tribal wars — ripe for Afghanization.