The gulf between Lebanon's two main political blocs — the March 8 and March 14 coalitions — looms large as they are put to the first real test in preparing for upcoming parliamentary elections: agreeing on an electoral law. Hezbollah has managed its bloc tactfully, intelligently and with ease and has scored a number of points, which provide significant political support to its Christian ally Gen. Michel Aoun. Meanwhile, a sense of loss and confusion prevailed among the opposition bloc — the March 14 coalition — which appears increasingly disjointed.

The two Christian parties — or "brotherly rivals," the Lebanese Forces Party and the Kataeb Party — surprised their opposition allies when they again supported an election law carrying the name of its writers: the "Orthodox Gathering" proposal. This draft would have members of each sect elect their representatives in parliament on a proportional basis, with all of Lebanon considered a single electoral district.

The two parties had previously agreed with their March 14 coalition allies — particularly the Future Movement, whose base is dominated by Sunni Muslims — on a draft elections law that the coalition had presented to parliament. It involved dividing Lebanon into 50 districts and distributing the 128 members of parliament (MPs) among these districts, with each district having at most two or three seats. The two Christian parties ignored this mutual understanding and when they met their rivals — the Free Patriotic Movement and the Marada Movement — at the headquarters of the Patriarchate of the Maronite Church, they were informed that the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition had signed onto the Orthodox proposal. The major Christian parties agreed that this proposal would provide maximum representation for Christians in Lebanon, 64 MPs out of a possible 64, without affecting their Muslim partners’ selection of their own MPs. 

The two parties acted surprised by Hezbollah's position, despite the fact that, for several months, there had been suggestions that Hezbollah would take this step to support the position of its special Christian ally, Aoun. Opinion polls confirmed that the March 8 coalition would be the likely winner if elections are held next June under the Orthodox proposal. Two senior officials from the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb parties told Al-Monitor that the adoption of this law would make predicting the winning bloc tough, because the outcome would be decided by only one or two MPs out of 128. This would allow the elections to take place, since each competing bloc would enter the competition knowing that they had a chance to win a majority, rather than feeling the result was predetermined.