Recent elections in Egypt and Tunisia swept Islamists to power who appear to be moderate so far, but the vote in Libya is likely to produce a more unsettling result: a legislature controlled by a mixture of politically inexperienced tribal and Islamic lawmakers united by their regard for Sharia as the source of all laws.

That’s the probable outcome in a country that has never known more than one political party, much less democracy. The ruling National Transition Council has no clue as to how the new Libya can have a representative government. The ousted Gaddafi regime banned political parties and all independent political groups, while the majority of Libyans never voted in openly contested elections, and tribal sheiks dominated political life all the way to the top. Mustafa Abdeljalil, the NTC chairman, took his own former ministerial post under a tribal umbrella, within a game the late Gaddafi skillfully played.

That left the Muslim Brotherhood as the only well-organized political group, having nurtured its political aspirations and maintained its web-like organization beyond the reach of the former regime.

Tribal leaders, in the meantime, had always enjoyed the regime’s support, as long as they didn’t upset the rules of the game. Their perceived legitimacy as a political force has survived the Gaddafi regime's exit. This, coupled with their constant presence among their communities, could well deny the Islamists a majority.