Iran’s announcement that it is willing to return to negotiations over its nuclear program this month [April 2012] is encouraging but the question remains: Will it be amenable to or even capable of compromising?

The Iranian economy has no doubt been damaged by recent sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank and will be more so by an upcoming European embargo of Iranian oil. Recent political developments in Iran may also facilitate engagement by the Islamic Republic with the United States and its partners. There have been small signs that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may now be better able to make concessions on the nuclear program than in the past. 

But Khamenei’s worldview and narrow political interests suggest that he may not be willing to make the sort of concessions that will satisfy the United States and its anxious ally, Israel.

Khamenei’s consolidation of power and the weakening of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after the March 2012 parliamentary elections have streamlined Iran’s nuclear decision-making. Iran’s failure to reach an agreement on the nuclear-fuel swap deal in 2009 stemmed in part from post-election chaos following the disputed re-election of Ahmadinejad; Ahmadinejad’s efforts to reach a deal with the P5+1 — the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany — were vigorously and successfully attacked from both the right and left of the Iranian political spectrum.