The next Israeli elections, which will take place no later than late October 2013, will determine whether the right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will keep running the government with hardly any parliamentary opposition, or if his Likud party and its potential right-wing and Orthodox partners will face a center-left bloc which either eliminates or, at least, decreases Netanyahu's political power. It will determine whether the peace process will remain in a deadlock, or will get a fair, if not a last chance.  

Kadima and Labor have great difficulty presenting a charismatic potential leader who can challenge Netanyahu. The prime minister enjoys both the active support of Ehud Barak, as well as the passive support of Barack Obama. Thus, it seems unrealistic to mobilize, in the foreseeable future, a significant segment of Jewish voters from the right-Orthodox bloc to form a center–left coalition.

To date, combined Orthodox and settlers turnout has been above 90%, which does not leave much room for change. Jewish majority turnout is unlikely to change drastically, providing there is no major new event such as war, intifada or a major economic crisis. The name of the game is the Palestinian-Israeli voter turnout. The only possibility to form a 61-member center-left bloc in the Knesset, eliminating Netanyahu’s quest for power, or at least a 59-person bloc, is mobilizing more members of this minority constituency and getting them to the ballot boxes.

Their recent low turnout, a mere 53% (45% voted for Arab parties, 8% to non-Arab parties), reflected the despair of the Palestinian-Israelis and the sense that they are unable to change their socio-economic and civic reality. The Arab parties were never invited to join the governments, and thus were not able to deliver budgets and legislation in favor of their constituencies. Frustrated Arab members of Knesset have been devoting their time to high-media profile issues. Members of the Jewish parties, realizing that Palestinian-Israelis don't vote for them, or don't bother to go to the polls, are at most indifferent to their interests.