Lack of Progress on Iran Is No Cause for Panic
World leaders shouldn’t be all that concerned about the possibility of a war with Iran, writes Aaron David Miller. Both the Obama administration and the mullahs share a common objective: to prevent an Israeli strike. The fact is that nobody — not the Israelis, the Iranians nor the Americans — wants a war or a deal right now.
The failure of yet another round of P5+1 talks with Iran on the nuclear issue has once again driven nervous Nellies in a dozen world capitals to worry about the rising possibility of a war with Iran.
They shouldn’t be all that concerned.
Both the Obama administration and the mullahs share a common objective: to prevent an Israeli strike. Even if they didn’t, the American desire to avoid war in an election year is compelling and powerful. The fact is that 2012 will bring neither war and nor a deal. Both are too risky now for either Washington or Teheran to contemplate. The actors in this nuclear drama are doing what they do best — buying time and space in the hopes that something will turn up to make their respective decisions easier and less risky.
Even for those committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, it’s getting harder and harder to ignore the obvious. The clever formulae for a deal may well exist on paper, but neither Teheran nor Washington have the incentive or capacity to bridge the gaps.
