For the first time in ages, an election campaign takes place in Israel, with everyone already knowing what will happen in its wake.

For the first time in eons, the big unknown is not what will happen in Israel but rather what will happen around it — across the rest of the turbulent Middle East. No one knows where Egypt is headed and what the next year or the next day will bring. No one knows the kind of Syria that will emerge, or even whether it will be able to emerge from the ruins, once the time come for Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad to step down — and come it will, soon enough. No one knows whether Jordan, as we know it today, will hold out, and what will become of the Hashemite Kingdom. Ask Military Intelligence, make inquiries with the Mossad, find out with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, try Europe, the United States or Russia — and you’ll draw a blank. Many tough questions are being asked, but answers are not forthcoming.

For the first time in the chronicles of modern history, Israel is said to be an island of stability in a stormy sea of uncertainty. To date, almost any election campaign in Israel had given rise to a major political shift. Prime ministers came and went. Right-wing prime ministers acted unexpectedly and pursued peace moves, while the left-wing premiers went to war. Governments were elected and voted down. Political reversals, twists and turns abounded. Jerusalem could not be counted on for anything.

One prime minister was assassinated [Yitzhak Rabin in 1995]; another had a stroke and faded away [Ariel Sharon in 2006]; a third was driven out by the judiciary system [Ehud Olmert in 2008]. The earth never stops moving and shaking. Today, it’s the total opposite.