Recent deadly violence between Alawis and Sunnis in Tripoli, Lebanon, is raising fears of full-scale Sunni-Shiite war in the country. But Lebanon is not at the cusp of civil war, because if there is a consensus on anything among its quarreling parties, it is their rejection of a new war.

Weapons, money and will are needed to start a war. The only party in Lebanon with sufficient weapons and money is Hezbollah, but a civil war is not in its interest.

The "Party of God," for the first time in its history, has almost total control of the important levers of power in Lebanon. With the loss of its strategic ally, the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah cannot afford to deplete its resources — which will become scarcer if its Syrian lifeline is severed — in an internal conflict. Also, the party has always insisted that its weapons are for fighting Israel and not for internal use, although the events of May 7, 2008 proved this assertion false when those weapons were used in Beirut against Hezbollah’s opponents.

Hezbollah’s adversaries in the March 14 movement have small arms, at most, and lack well-trained and battle-tested forces. The Sunnis and their Christian allies in the March 14 movement have no interest in a civil war that would devastate the Lebanese state. The announced project of March 14 is building the state; a civil war would not only destroy that project but could mean the end of Lebanon as we know it.