Next Gaza War a Matter Of When, Not If
Adnan Abu Amer, a political analyst based in Gaza, is pessimistic about the durability of the current cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, and points to regional factors as well as an Israeli desire to reassert its military superiority.
The recent Israeli war on Gaza ended with an urgent cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, after the two sides failed to completely achieve their objectives.
Israel carried out this military operation to restore its deterrence, which was dealt a severe blow by Hamas’ possession of Qassam and Grad missiles. The Palestinians’ initial targets, no more than 40km away from the Gaza Strip, put half a million Israelis at risk. By the end of the war, Hamas was able to reach 80km inside Israel, placing millions more in danger.
As for Hamas, it suffered a great defeat due to the loss of its military commander Ahmed Jabari, and became exposed to the threat of a ground operation that would have unseated its rule of the Gaza Strip. This hovering threat may rewind years of effort by Hamas to turn itself into a hub of the Palestinian political scene.
The two sides agreed to a cease-fire under international pressure and out of fear that they might reach the point of no return. This raises questions about the stability of this temporary cease-fire.
