Turkey has emerged as the key country in the Syrian endgame. Proximity is one reason; Turkey has a 600-mile border with Syria and also a long adjacent coastline. Another reason is Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s presumed influence in the region and his past close association with Syria’s President Bashar Assad.

Everyone, it seems, from pundits to officials, are gaming out Ankara’s options. Almost every suggestion aired has a Turkey component: some call for the Turkish armed forces to enter Syria, others would like to see Ankara establish safe havens for refugees and Assad’s opponents, while a third group wants to see “humanitarian corridors” established.

Ankara, by contrast, finds itself in an impossible situation. It is alarmed by Syria’s steady march into the abyss of a sectarian conflict between the ruling Alawite minority and the majority Sunni population. What it fears most is instability along its borders. Syria’s implosion will potentially unleash a wave of sectarian conflict that is likely to engulf other regional states such as Iraq and Lebanon, where fragile political structures paper over similar ethnic and/or sectarian fissures.

On the other hand, it does not want to intervene militarily. There is no domestic support for such a policy. Besides, with no guarantee of success, it would have negative repercussions for Turkey’s economy and undermine its reputation on the Arab street, which may see the former colonial ruler rearing its head. Ankara is even reluctant to create safe havens unless specifically asked by the United Nations. It has, however, opened its doors to the Syrian opposition and is host to the Free Syrian Army’s putative leaders.