What Qaani's Baghdad visit reveals about Iran's post-war dilemma
The Quds Force commander's Baghdad visit is occurring as Iran faced difficult choices in Iraq where the government is moving to bring powerful armed groups under state control after the recent war.
TEHRAN — Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani arrived in Baghdad this week as Tehran faces a growing dilemma over its allied militias: how to preserve their weapons and influence while keeping them from confronting the Iraqi state.
According to Iraq's Shafaq News, citing an informed source, Qaani told leaders of Iran-aligned factions to reject the handover of their weapons "at the current stage" while avoiding an armed confrontation with the government. He reportedly urged the factions and political leaders of the Coordination Framework to seek a political settlement instead.
The reported message does not amount to an outright rejection of Baghdad's authority. Instead, it suggests the Islamic Republic is seeking to manage a problem that has become considerably more difficult since the US-Israel-Iran war began in February.
For years, Iran has relied on Iraqi armed groups to project regional influence and maintain leverage against the United States. But the stronger those groups become, the harder it is for Baghdad to claim a monopoly over force. And the more freely they operate against US or regional targets, the greater the pressure on the Iraqi government to restrain them.
