Turkey brokers intra-Somalia talks as federal rifts test Ankara’s influence

ANKARA — Turkey brokered a first round of talks this week between Somalia’s federal government and opposition representatives in a bid to break a deepening political impasse over the country’s constitutional reforms.

The two-day talks, held in Mogadishu on Tuesday and Wednesday, brought together “representatives of the Federal Government of Somalia and opposition representatives,” according to an official Somali statement released by the country’s state broadcaster. 

The statement did not elaborate on who joined the talks from the government or the opposition.

The meeting was held in a “friendly atmosphere,” with the two sides agreeing to continue “an inclusive dialogue process,” according to the statement.

The talks followed months of behind-the-scenes efforts by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization to bring the sides to the table, Turkey’s state broadcaster TRT reported.

Diplomats from unspecified Western countries were also present at the talks as observers, Mogadishu-based Somali news outlet Mustaqbal Media said, without providing further details.

Background: The current impasse stems from constitutional amendments championed by Somalia’s federal government that critics say could extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term by one year and delay federal elections until 2027.

Somalia’s presidential election was due in May, after parliament’s mandate expired in April. But the vote has been thrown into uncertainty amid disagreements over the electoral framework and the government’s push to replace the clan-based indirect system with direct elections.

Meanwhile, Puntland and Jubaland, two of Somalia’s semi-autonomous regions, have opposed the constitutional reforms, accusing Mohamud’s government of pushing through changes without broad consensus and sidelining the country’s federal regions.

Both states declined to join the Turkey-led Mogadishu meetings, questioning Ankara’s neutrality, Garowe Online, a Somali news outlet focused on Somalia and the Horn of Africa, reported.

Why it matters: The Turkey-brokered talks come as Ankara’s expanding security role in Somalia faces growing scrutiny from Somali opposition figures and regional authorities, who accuse Ankara of tilting toward Mohamud’s federal government in Mogadishu.

Some lawmakers and regional officials accused Turkey earlier this year of backing Mogadishu in internal power struggles, pointing to the alleged use of Turkish-supplied weapons in confrontations between federal and local forces.

While the participation of some opposition representatives in the Turkey-brokered talks could help ease scrutiny of Ankara’s role, the absence of Puntland and Jubaland also shows the limits of Turkish mediation in Somalia’s fragmented federal politics.

Turkey has ramped up its efforts to support stability in Somalia in a bid to preserve its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa country in recent months.

Last month, Turkish F-16 fighter jets, deployed to Somalia earlier this year, conducted strikes on al-Shabab militant positions in the country’s south, according to Somalia’s Defense Ministry.

Somalia is a cornerstone of Turkey’s Africa outreach, hosting one of Ankara’s largest overseas military bases and serving as a key foothold for Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa.

Know more: Turkey’s efforts to shore up support for Somalia’s federal institutions also come amid rising geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa between Turkey and Israel.

In December, Israel recognized Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, as an independent state. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but had not received formal recognition from any UN member state until Israel’s move.

Turkey blasted the decision as illegitimate and unacceptable, with Ankara designating Somalia’s territorial integrity as a national security priority in March.