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Analysis

Will Pashinyan’s victory in Armenia be enough to unlock peace with Turkey, Azerbaijan?

Armenia’s election result strengthens Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, but his push to normalize ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan still faces major political and constitutional hurdles.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on the sidelines of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Sept. 24, 2024.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on the sidelines of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Sept. 24, 2024. — Armenian Prime Minister's Office

MARGARA, Armenia — Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, won parliamentary elections on Sunday by a comfortable margin. The result is being widely interpreted as a popular endorsement of his effort to align Armenia more closely with the West and less with Russia. European leaders were among the first to congratulate him, as election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe declared that Russian meddling in the race had reached “unprecedented” levels.

The country's Central Elections Commission said in a Monday statement that Pashinyan's party had received 49.81% of the vote, while the main opposition, the Russia-backed Strong Armenia party, received 23.29%.

Pashinyan made peace with Armenia’s historic foes, Turkey and Azerbaijan, a central pillar of his campaign, prompting his main rivals to call him a traitor. “The people of Armenia voted for peace, regional prosperity and regional cooperation, and I hope this will be met with a positive response from Turkey and Azerbaijan,” Pashinyan said in early comments as results were announced. Despite his victory, the question remains wide open and it’s all about numbers. Pashinyan failed to clinch two-thirds of seats needed to authorize a referendum on changing the country’s constitution.

Azerbaijan insists that Armenia must change its constitution before it can sign a definitive peace deal with its landlocked Christian-majority neighbor.

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