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Analysis

How Iran war shaped divergent paths to security among GCC states

The Iran war left the Gulf more fragmented than united, with competing security strategies replacing any prospect of a common regional defense.

A man walks past the flags of the countries attending the Gulf Cooperation Council summit at Bayan palace in Kuwait City on Dec. 5, 2017.
A man walks past the flags of the countries attending the Gulf Cooperation Council summit at Bayan palace in Kuwait City on Dec. 5, 2017. — GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images

Though the Iran war has formally ended, its aftershocks continue to reshape Gulf politics. Rather than producing a unified Arab security response, the conflict exposed widening strategic differences within the Gulf Cooperation Council, with Saudi Arabia pursuing mediation with Tehran, Qatar prioritizing maritime stability and the United Arab Emirates adopting a far more cautious and security-driven posture.

As skirmishes between Iran and the United States continue despite the ceasefire agreement, the prospect of a coherent Gulf security architecture appears increasingly uncertain.

Three tracks, three capitals

In this volatile environment, Riyadh wants to host a summit of its own to normalize ties between Iran and the GCC, Agence France-Presse reported on June 24, citing a diplomat with knowledge of the arrangements. Having pursued de-escalation throughout the Iran war and maintained open channels with Tehran, Saudi Arabia emerged relatively unscathed compared with the UAE and several other Gulf states that faced a barrage of direct Iranian drone and missile attacks. Riyadh now apparently sees an opportunity to position itself at the center of regional mediation efforts.

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