The United Arab Emirates plans to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1 as internal strains reshape the powerful oil cartel in 2026. 

The move, long hinted at amid tensions with OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, comes during a severe energy supply shock triggered by the US-Israel-Iran war, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global crude flows by throttling the Strait of Hormuz.

For Abu Dhabi, however, the decision is less a wartime strategy than a longer-term strategic recalibration. Friction with OPEC and Riyadh has built for years, surfacing in disputes during the 2020-2021 meetings over production policy. Heading into 2026, broader geopolitical tension between the two Gulf powers was erupting into public view even before the US-Israel-Iran war broke out on Feb. 28.

“The decision today is not a complete surprise, and it reflects also the more recent escalation in tension with Saudi Arabia, the feeling that OPEC no longer holds the same value to the UAE and a harder sense that the Iran war has sharpened perceptions of which relationships the UAE should prioritize going forward,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at the Baker Institute, told Al-Monitor.