UAE’s OPEC exit rattles cartel as Gulf alliances shift
OPEC's fourth-largest producer will leave the cartel on May 1, marking the most significant departure in the group’s history as the war changes Abu Dhabi's relationship priorities.
The United Arab Emirates plans to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1 as internal strains reshape the powerful oil cartel in 2026.
The move, long hinted at amid tensions with OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, comes during a severe energy supply shock triggered by the US-Israel-Iran war, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global crude flows by throttling the Strait of Hormuz.
For Abu Dhabi, however, the decision is less a wartime strategy than a longer-term strategic recalibration. Friction with OPEC and Riyadh has built for years, surfacing in disputes during the 2020-2021 meetings over production policy. Heading into 2026, broader geopolitical tension between the two Gulf powers was erupting into public view even before the US-Israel-Iran war broke out on Feb. 28.
“The decision today is not a complete surprise, and it reflects also the more recent escalation in tension with Saudi Arabia, the feeling that OPEC no longer holds the same value to the UAE and a harder sense that the Iran war has sharpened perceptions of which relationships the UAE should prioritize going forward,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at the Baker Institute, told Al-Monitor.
