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Analysis

Proxies, maritime pressure, power plays: Iran’s options if US strikes

A military strike risks entrenching hard-liners in Tehran if Washington fails to accomplish regime change driven by a clear endgame.

This photograph shows an Iranian national flag installed on the Beheshti Mosque that was damaged during recent public protests, in Tehran on Jan. 21, 2026.
This photograph shows an Iranian national flag installed on the Beheshti Mosque that was damaged during recent public protests in Tehran on Jan. 21, 2026. — ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — Simmering tensions between Washington and Tehran, amid a deadly crackdown on unrest inside Iran and an expanding US military presence in the region, have revived an unresolved question: What would Iran actually do if faced with an American military campaign targeting the regime?

The United States has significantly reinforced its military footprint across the Middle East in recent weeks, deploying additional naval, air, and air-defense assets. 

"We have a lot of ships going that direction, just in case. I'd rather not see anything happen, but we're watching them very closely," President Donald Trump said in recent days. 

As Al-Monitor reported, a US aircraft carrier strike group is moving into the region, along with guided-missile destroyers, while fighter squadrons, refueling aircraft and transport planes have increased their operational tempo. Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems are also reportedly being positioned to protect US forces and allied bases.

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