Skip to main content
Analysis

Israel assesses Trump may opt for Iran strike despite protest crackdown

The prevailing assessment in Israel is that US President Trump will opt to strike the Tehran government in order to show the protesters that the United States has not abandoned them.

TEHRAN, IRAN - JANUARY 10: The heavily damaged Tax Affairs building is pictured on January 10, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Some areas of Tehran sustained heavy damage during ongoing protests that came to a head on January 8, amid a growing economic and political crisis sweeping the country. (Photo by Stringer/Getty Images)
The heavily damaged Tax Affairs building is pictured on Jan. 10, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. Some areas of Tehran sustained heavy damage during ongoing protests that came to a head on Jan. 8, amid a growing economic and political crisis sweeping the country. — Stringer/Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Despite Israeli intelligence assessments that Tehran has the capacity to curb protests, Israel believes US President Donald Trump is likely to opt for an attack on Iran.

Israeli security sources suggest that the United States may take up where Israel left off at the end of the June 2025 12-day war. On the final day of that conflict, Israeli jets held back from carrying out a large-scale attack on Tehran. Unlike strikes conducted earlier in the war, the planned operation was not aimed at Iran’s nuclear program or ballistic missile systems, but rather at what were described as symbols of Iranian power.

As the aircraft made their long journey to the targets, Trump demanded that Israel abort the operation and immediately return the planes to their bases. Israel complied. The cancellation order was issued with gritted teeth, shortly before the bombs were due to be dropped. Is this episode about to resume where it left off — this time with attacking aircraft bearing the stars and stripes on their wings?

Will Trump opt to strike?

SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE

Continue reading this exclusive analysis

Original reporting and analysis unavailable elsewhere. Subscribe to AL-MONITOR to read this story and access everything we publish