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Analysis

Iran unrest: 4 scenarios as protests spread, regime weighs options

As casualties mount amid nearly a week of unrest in Iran, Donald Trump's threat to "rescue" demonstrators has sharpened tensions, forcing Tehran to confront escalating unrest at home alongside renewed fears of foreign intervention and regime change.

A large anti-Israeli banner portraying an image of a Palestinian fighter and the slogan in Persian and Hebrew, "Endless Voice of Resistance," is erected in Palestine Square in Tehran on Dec. 31, 2025, after Israel's Mossad spy agency issued a direct call urging Iranians to press on with protests.
A large anti-Israeli banner portraying an image of a Palestinian fighter and the slogan in Persian and Hebrew, "Endless Voice of Resistance," is erected in Palestine Square in Tehran on Dec. 31, 2025, after Israel's Mossad spy agency issued a direct call urging Iranians to press on with protests. — ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — The Iranian regime is facing one of its most geographically expansive waves of unrest in years, as protests approach a second week and have spread across more than 70 towns and cities, according to human rights monitors and local reports.

What began last Sunday as protests over the collapse of the national currency and soaring living costs has rapidly evolved into broader unrest, with some demonstrators demanding the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. 

According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, at least seven people, including minors, have been killed by security forces, with dozens more wounded and an unknown number arrested. Other sources have reported higher death tolls of up to 10. Security forces have used tear gas, pellet guns and live fire. One family of a slain protester has rejected official attempts to portray the victim as a member of the security forces or as a "rioter."

Though Iran has weathered repeated waves of protest since 2009, the breadth of the current unrest has heightened official alarm, with demonstrations spanning from peripheral regions to major urban centers — including the clerical stronghold of Qom, where chants calling for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were heard on Friday.

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