The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US forces on Jan. 3 sent shock waves through global diplomacy. But for Saudi Arabia and its partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the episode could represent something more unsettling than a new bout of geopolitical turbulence; it could pose a potential challenge to the cartel’s future influence in an oil market increasingly shaped by American power. 

President Donald Trump has said that the United States “will run” the oil-rich Latin American country — a founding member of OPEC — until a political transition is possible, while his energy secretary, Chris Wright, has said Washington seeks to control Venezuela’s crude exports indefinitely. In the short term, the Venezuelan crisis is unlikely to disrupt Middle Eastern crude exporters, as Al-Monitor has reported.

Oil prices barely flinched after Maduro’s ouster, with benchmark Brent crude hovering at around $60 per barrel as global oversupply concerns continue to outweigh disruption fears. Venezuela’s battered oil industry, meanwhile, remains years away from any major revival after prolonged corruption, mismanagement and underinvestment, along with US sanctions. 

Over the longer term, however, Washington’s bid to bring the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves firmly into its orbit raises uncomfortable questions for OPEC’s 12-member nations, which are de facto led by Saudi Arabia, as well as its broader coalition, known as OPEC+, with other producer nations including Russia.