TEL AVIV — As demonstrations sweep Iran, Israeli assessments range from dismissal as less significant than previous protests to speculation that the political crisis might push the Iranian government to attempt to extricate itself with a missile attack on Israel.

On Friday afternoon, Al-Monitor asked a senior Israeli security source about the protests and the extent to which they threaten the regime. “This is a serious incident, but it does not endanger the regime," said the source, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The scope and number of protesters are much smaller than in previous rounds, they have no leader and the protest has no 'face.'"

But a few minutes later, the official received a note from one of his aides. "I'm changing my mind," he said. "From now on, we need to adjust our attitude toward the event. It doesn't mean that the Iranian government is falling, but it does mean that this is an exceptional event with real potential, certainly relative to all previous rounds of protest."

The revised assessment appears to follow a Friday Truth Social post by US President Donald Trump warning Iran that if it “kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” Trump reiterated his warning on Monday of a “heavy” US response.