Turkey eyes continuity in Iraq as elections test Sudani’s pro-Ankara momentum
Ankara’s newfound clout in Baghdad, built on water deals and quiet security coordination, will face its first big test at the ballot box.
Turkey isn’t on the ballot in Iraq’s parliamentary elections — but its interests are. With water-sharing deals flowing and military coordination at a high point, Ankara hopes the post-election government prioritizes the current thaw between Ankara and Baghdad.
Turkey has emerged as one of the quiet stakeholders in Iraq’s parliamentary elections as Ankara seeks to preserve the positive momentum achieved under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. The two neighbors have repaired years of friction over water-sharing and Turkish military operations against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq. Now, with Sudani facing an uphill battle to keep his post, Ankara hopes it can sustain the current trajectory — regardless of who forms the next government in Baghdad.
The 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election is scheduled for Nov. 11, with all 329 seats in the Iraqi parliament up for grabs. Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition is widely viewed as the front-runner, riding on infrastructure-led reform efforts and a relative uptick in stability in the country since he came to power in 2022. Still, the contest will be heated as the Coordination Framework, which is led by former Prime Minister Nouri al‑Maliki, is working to prevent Sudani from winning a second term. Sudani, also a Shiite, enjoys good relations with the country’s Sunnis and Kurds and could explore new coalition options with them if his bloc emerges on top after the vote.
Iraq’s choices, Sudani’s options
