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Analysis

Iran’s regional clout wanes, isolation grows two years after celebrating Hamas attacks

Two years after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, Iran finds itself more isolated and vulnerable, facing the limits of its regional influence and deep fractures within its Axis of Resistance.

In this picture obtained from Iran's ISNA news agency, a flag with the portrait of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is waved during the funeral procession of 15 people killed in Israeli strikes during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, in the city of Mashhad on June 27, 2025.
In this picture obtained from Iran's ISNA news agency, a flag with the portrait of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is waved during the funeral procession of 15 people killed in Israeli strikes during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, in the city of Mashhad on June 27, 2025. — SADEGH HATAMI/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — When Iranian hard-liners handed out sweets in Tehran's Enghelab Square on Oct. 7, 2023, celebrating Hamas' unprecedented attack on Israel, few of them imagined that their jubilation would be followed by a series of setbacks pushing the Islamic Republic establishment toward near collapse. 

The crowds who hailed what they called a "divine victory" could hardly foresee that Israel would one day strike deep into Iranian soil — or that the Islamic Republic's regional power would soon be on a downward trajectory.

Two years later, Iran stands battered by the consequences of a war involving its proxy forces that it has been unable to control. The 12-day war in June between Iran and Israel — the first direct confrontation between the two enemies — laid bare Tehran's vulnerabilities. Israeli drone and missile strikes penetrated deep into the country, hitting air defense systems, missile depots and command centers. Iranian forces retaliated with limited missile attacks but struggled to prevent further strikes. 

Regional setbacks

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