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Analysis

Erdogan’s long game: How CHP court case could cripple Turkey’s opposition

Analysts say the protracted trial over the CHP’s 2023 leadership vote is less about overturning results than draining the opposition’s energy ahead of key political battles.

Leader of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Ozgur Ozel addresses the audience during a rally in Istanbul on April 9, 2025.
Leader of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party Ozgur Ozel addresses the audience during a rally in Istanbul on April 9, 2025. — YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images

ANKARA — A protracted court case challenging the outcome of the leadership vote for the Republican People’s Party's (CHP), Turkey's main opposition party, appears less aimed at overturning the results than it does at weakening the opposition party from within, analysts warn — a strategy that could help President Recep Tayyip Erdogan move forward with sweeping political changes.

Public prosecutors launched an investigation into vote-rigging allegations in February, following unverified claims by Lutfu Savas, a former CHP member expelled last year over internal violations. The trial began in March, and last Monday marked its third hearing. The court adjourned proceedings to Sept. 15.

The suit challenges the legitimacy of the CHP’s November 2023 congress, in which Ozgur Ozel defeated longtime leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and later led the party to historic gains in local elections. The case alleges vote rigging during that leadership contest, reigniting tensions within the party’s ranks.

Critics say the legal challenge is politically motivated — part of a broader effort to sideline the opposition at a time when support for Erdogan’s ruling alliance is declining amid runaway inflation. Turkey’s annual inflation reached 35.5% in June, according to official data released this week. While government officials insist the judiciary is independent, opposition leaders and international observers including the European Union have repeatedly raised concerns about the erosion of judicial independence in Turkey.

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