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Analysis

As US nuclear talks stall, Iran ups military planning, turns to China for missile fuel

Amid uncertainties in the recent US-Iran nuclear diplomacy, Tehran is gearing up for a showdown with Israel, reportedly rebuilding its missile capabilities and threatening Israel with a devastating response.

Iranian motorcyclist pass by a banner of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, placed next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, on September 26, 2024 on the sideline of an exhibition which marks the 44th anniversary of the start of Iran-Iraq war.
Iranian motorcyclists pass by a banner of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, placed next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 26, 2024. — HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — Iran and the United States have held five rounds of nuclear talks since mid-March. Despite weeks of Omani-mediated intense diplomacy, no significant breakthrough has been achieved. 

At the heart of the impasse lies a fundamental disagreement over Iran's uranium enrichment program, which the Islamic Republic insists on maintaining, but which the United States believes could provide Tehran with the ability to rapidly build nuclear weapons.

For Israel, the prospect is alarming. Long considering Iran's nuclear program an existential threat, Israel has escalated its rhetoric in recent weeks, warning that in the absence of a credible deal that fully addresses its concerns, it will act unilaterally to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

The United States, while continuing to stress its commitment to diplomacy, has also intensified its rhetoric. Senior American officials have indicated that if Iran drags out the talks, Washington may resort to military options aimed at dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

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