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Analysis

As Israel-Iran strikes escalate, Russia weighs risks and opportunities

With evacuations underway and investments at risk, the Kremlin still sees a chance to benefit by boosting gas exports and mediating US-Iran talks.

TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 15: People observe fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran. Iran's foreign minister said the country would respond "decisively and proportionally" to a wave of attacks that Israel launched beginning in the early hours of June 13. The attacks targeted multiple military, scientific and residential locations, as well as senior government officials. (Photo by Stringer/Getty Images)
People observe fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. — Stringer/Getty Images

As Israeli military operations intensify inside Iran, Moscow risks encountering increasingly serious challenges. The Russian government is currently focused on evacuating its citizens and has closed its consulate in Tehran. At the same time, major Russian investments and long-standing projects in Iran may be threatened by Israeli airstrikes. Nevertheless, some Russian experts believe the Kremlin could ultimately benefit from the instability.

Dealing with instability

Russia has faced several challenges since the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated on Friday morning. Flight cancellations left Russian citizens stranded across the Middle East, with the United Arab Emirates the most affected. Disruptions there impacted around 10,000 Russian nationals.

One high-profile case that drew media attention involved renowned Russian film director Fyodor Bondarchuk, who was shooting a film in Iran with a production team of 86 people. With assistance from Russian diplomats, the entire team was successfully evacuated through Azerbaijan.

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