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Analysis

Defense and diplomacy: Gulf states recalibrate after Iran’s retaliation at Al Udeid

As Tehran strikes Al Udeid and a Trump-brokered truce halts escalation, Gulf states weigh their vulnerabilities and options amid fears of future conflict.

A member of the US Airforce looks on near a Patriot missile battery at the Prince Sultan air base in Al-Kharj, in central Saudi Arabia on February 20, 2020. (Photo by Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
A member of the US Air Force looks on near a Patriot missile battery at the Prince Sultan air base in Al-Kharj, in central Saudi Arabia, on Feb. 20, 2020. — ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Iran’s June 23 missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar marked the Islamic Republic’s most direct response yet to Operation Midnight Hammer, the US bombing of its key nuclear facilities. It was the first time that Iran struck a US base in the Gulf, a symbolic and strategic hit that triggered a wave of diplomatic and military recalibrations across the region. 

A Trump-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel has held for almost a week. Still, regional leaders — especially those within range of Iranian missiles and without the layered air defense systems enjoyed by Israel — are warily assessing what comes next.

The Gulf's narrow corridor of deterrence, dialogue and damage control

The Iranian retaliation for the US-led Operation Midnight Hammer arrived swiftly and strategically: a limited but highly symbolic missile strike on Qatar’s Al Udeid base, the largest American military facility in the Gulf serving as the regional headquarters for US Central Command. Roughly 8,000 US troops were stationed there before the escalation.

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