Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar face uneven 2025 growth as trade tensions rise: IMF
While Gulf economies face only the Trump administration’s baseline 10% tariffs, the levies have already impacted oil prices and revenue, especially for rentier states like Saudi Arabia.
DUBAI — Gulf economies are headed for uneven growth in 2025, with Saudi Arabia squeezed by rising oil supply and mounting global trade tensions, the International Monetary Fund warned in its latest economic outlook. Despite headwinds, the kingdom is expected to outperform the global average, even as the more diversified UAE and gas-rich Qatar appear better positioned to withstand tariff pressures.
In its World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, the IMF cut its global gross domestic product forecast from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2025, and from 3.3% to 3% for 2026 — a combined downgrade of around 0.8 percentage points from its January estimates.
GDP growth for the Middle East and Central Asia region was also revised downward, from 3.6% to 3% for 2025.
Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy, received the steepest downward revision in proportionate terms. The IMF now expects its GDP to grow by 3% in 2025, down from 3.3%. The projection for 2026 was also trimmed by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7%.
