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Analysis

As Iran’s role recedes, Israel alarmed by Turkey-Syria-Egypt alignment

Could a new triple axis replace the yearslong threat against Israel of Iran and its proxies?

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoan (3-R) greets Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (2-L) next to Bolivia's President Luis Arce (L) and Argentina's President Javier Milei (R) before the group photo at the end of the first session of the G20 Leaders' Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 18, 2024. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP) (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoan (3-R) greets Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (2-L) next to Bolivia's President Luis Arce (L) and Argentina's President Javier Milei (R) before the group photo at the end of the first session of the G20 Leaders' Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 18, 2024. — LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Is the waning existential threat to Israel by the Iran-led axis being replaced by a Turkish-led threat? 

Concern and suggestions to this effect are increasingly emerging from internal discussions and off-record briefings by political circles close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel could soon find itself confronting an axis running from Ankara, through Damascus and on to Cairo, according to this scenario. The instigator and funder of this perceived coalition is Turkey, with the Turkish-sponsored new Syrian government and various militias as its executors.

While Egypt is far from enthusiastic about the new Islamist-led Syrian government, Gaza-related tensions between Israel and Turkey on one hand and Israel and Egypt on the other could draw Cairo and Damascus closer. As such, Israel could suddenly find itself with a hostile Egypt on its southern border and a hostile Turkey-linked entity on its northeast border. The accumulation of new adversaries would shift the regional balance of power to Israel’s disadvantage.

Egypt against Israel?

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