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Analysis

Will US-Russia rapprochement increase odds of Israel striking Iran?

Israeli leaders hope the thaw in relations will lead Moscow to stem strategic cooperation with Tehran, leaving Iran vulnerable to an attack on its nuclear facilities after a US green light.

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds flowers next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they meet at the Kremlin in Moscow on January 30, 2020. (Photo by MAXIM SHEMETOV / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MAXIM SHEMETOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds flowers next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they meet at the Kremlin in Moscow on Jan. 30, 2020. — MAXIM SHEMETOV/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Israel is one of the few US strategic partners undisturbed by President Donald Trump’s decision to throw Ukraine and its leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, under the wheels of Russia's bus. 

In fact, in the close circles around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the dramatic rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin presents a long-awaited opportunity to address the threat from Iran, Israel's greatest obsession and what it perceives as the sole danger to its existence. 

According to the Israeli officials' thinking, the high-stakes US-Russian realignment erodes Putin’s incentive to help Iran rehabilitate its air defense systems, which Israel crippled in an October 2024 strike, thereby enabling a possible Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites. Israel has become increasingly concerned about the possibility of Moscow helping Iran restore the Russian-made air defense batteries in the wake of the 20-year strategic partnership agreement signed last month by Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, to deepen bilateral military ties.

Netanyahu has consistently viewed the weakening of the Islamist Republic as his life’s mission, but he has also repeatedly held back on plans for more than a decade to bomb its burgeoning nuclear program. With his place in history severely compromised by the disastrous Hamas Oct. 7, 2023, attack, which occurred on his watch, he may view crushing Iran’s nuclear ambitions as the only opportunity left to burnish his legacy.

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