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Analysis

Israel facing 3 options after extending military presence in south Lebanon

Israeli forces remain at five outposts after their deadline to withdrew, and the parameters for their departure remain unclear.

 Israeli soldiers walk along the buffer zone between northern Israel and southern Lebanon, Feb. 18, 2025.
Israeli soldiers walk along the buffer zone between northern Israel and southern Lebanon, Feb. 18, 2025. — Amir Levy/Getty Images

Aiming for evacuated residents to begin returning to their homes in northern Israel starting March 1 could explain the decision by Israeli authorities to retain a military presence at five outposts in southern Lebanon, contrary to the amendment to the Nov. 27 ceasefire agreement for a full withdrawal by Feb. 18.

Israel has not made clear how long it intends to remain at the outposts along the Lebanese border and to what extent it intends to respect the ceasefire in the event Hezbollah does not. 

In a Feb. 13 interview with Bloomberg, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said, "The army will redeploy but retain those five positions until Lebanon complies with ceasefire commitments." He declined to say how long the positions would be occupied. 

Israeli security experts estimate that it could be some time before a full withdrawal, which largely depends on the proactiveness of the Lebanese military. The Lebanese armed forces will first have to persuade Israel that they have fully disarmed Hezbollah fighters in the area and have full control of the territory.

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