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Analysis

Can Middle East economies capitalize on Trump’s tariff turmoil?

The US tariffs could provide opportunities in manufacturing, metals and the energy sector in the Middle East and North Africa as countries look for workarounds.

Flames rise from the burning of excess hydrocarbons at the Nahr Bin Omar natural gas field, north of the southern Iraqi port of Basra, Jan. 22, 2018.
Flames rise from the burning of excess hydrocarbons at the Nahr Bin Omar natural gas field, north of the southern Iraqi port of Basra, Jan. 22, 2018. — HAIDAR MOHAMMED ALI/AFP via Getty Image

After US President Donald Trump began his second term by launching a tariff broadside against the United States' top trading partners, the ripple effects from his economic policies began to create both opportunities and challenges in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). 

Trump, who took office Jan. 20, moved swiftly to introduce a new 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico alongside an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports, all set to enter force by early February. His actions quickly fueled fears of a global trade war, with a range of implications in the MENA region, but not all of them bad.

For one example, commodities exporters in MENA potentially stand to capitalize on tariff turmoil. On Feb. 3, Reuters reported that US metals buyers could turn to the Middle East if new tariffs on Canada went into effect. In addition, Bloomberg reported on the same day that traders see US oil refiners turning to Latin America and the Middle East to replace Canadian and Mexican crudes if the tariff threats became a reality. 

State of play

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